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Interface Focus

The Royal Society

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Interface Focus's content profile, based on 14 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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A geometric-surface PDE model for cell-nucleus translocation through confinement

Ballatore, F.; Madzvamuse, A.; Jebane, C.; Helfer, E.; Allena, R.

2026-04-17 biophysics 10.64898/2025.12.18.695144 medRxiv
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Understanding how cells migrate through confined environments is crucial for elucidating fundamental biological processes, including cancer invasion, immune surveillance, and tissue morphogenesis. The nucleus, as the largest and stiffest cellular organelle, often limits cellular deformability, making it a key factor in migration through narrow pores or highly constrained spaces. In this work, we introduce a geometric surface partial differential equation (GS-PDE) model in which the cell plasma membrane and nuclear envelope are described as evolving energetic closed surfaces governed by force-balance equations. We replicate the results of a biophysical experiment, where a microfluidic device is used to impose compressive stresses on cells by driving them through narrow microchannels under a controlled pressure gradient. The model is validated by reproducing cell entry into the microchannels. A parametric sensitivity analysis highlights the dominant influence of specific parameters, whose accurate estimation is essential for faithfully capturing the experimental setup. We found that surface tension and confinement geometry emerge as key determinants of translocation efficiency. Although tailored to this specific setup for validation purposes, the framework is sufficiently general to be applied to a broad range of cell mechanics scenarios, providing a robust and flexible tool for investigating the interplay between cell mechanics and confinement. It also offers a solid foundation for future extensions integrating more complex biochemical processes such as active confined migration.

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Virtual Spectral Decomposition with Dendritic Tile Selection: An Explainable AI Framework for Multimodal Tissue Composition Analysis and Immune Phenotyping Across Pancreatic, Lung, and Breast Cancer

Chandra, S.

2026-04-13 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.11.26350689 medRxiv
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Background: Current deep learning models in computational pathology, radiology, and digital pathology produce opaque predictions that lack the explainable artificial intelligence (xAI) capabilities required for clinical adoption. Despite achieving radiologist-level performance in tasks from whole-slide image (WSI) classification to mammographic screening, these models function as black boxes: clinicians cannot trace predictions to specific biological features, verify outputs against established morphological criteria, or integrate AI reasoning into precision oncology workflows and tumor board decision-making. Methods: We present Virtual Spectral Decomposition (VSD), a modality-agnostic, interpretable-by-design framework that decomposes medical images into six biologically interpretable tissue composition channels using sigmoid threshold functions - the same mathematical structure as CT windowing. Unlike post-hoc xAI methods (Grad-CAM, SHAP, LIME) applied to black-box deep learning models, VSD channels have pre-defined biological meanings derived from tissue physics, providing inherent explainability without sacrificing quantitative rigor. For whole-slide image (WSI) analysis in digital pathology, we introduce the dendritic tile selection algorithm, a biologically-inspired hierarchical architecture achieving 70-80% computational reduction while preferentially sampling the tumor immune microenvironment. VSD is validated across three cancer types and imaging modalities: pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) on CT imaging, lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) on H&E-stained pathology slides using TCGA data, and breast cancer on screening mammography. Composition entropy of the six-channel vector is computed as a visual Biological Entropy Index (vBEI) - an imaging biomarker quantifying the diversity of active biological defense systems. Results: In pancreatic cancer, the fat-to-stroma ratio (a novel CT-derived radiomics biomarker) declines from >5.0 (normal) to <0.5 (advanced PDAC), enabling early detection of desmoplastic invasion before mass formation on standard imaging. In lung cancer, composition entropy from H&E whole-slide images correlates with tumor immune microenvironment markers from RNA-seq (CD3: rho=+0.57, p=0.009; CD8: rho=+0.54, p=0.015; PD-1: rho=+0.54, p=0.013) and predicts overall survival (low entropy immune-desert phenotype: 71% mortality vs 29%, p=0.032; n=20 TCGA-LUAD), providing immune phenotyping for checkpoint immunotherapy patient selection from a $5 H&E slide without molecular assays. In breast cancer, each lesion type produces a characteristic six-channel fingerprint functioning as an interpretable computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) system for quantitative BI-RADS assessment and subtype classification (IDC vs ILC vs DCIS vs IBC). A five-level xAI audit trail provides complete traceability from clinical decision support output to specific biological structures visible on the original images. Conclusion: VSD establishes a unified, interpretable-by-design mathematical framework for explainable tissue composition analysis across imaging modalities and cancer types. Unlike black-box deep learning and post-hoc xAI approaches, VSD provides inherently interpretable, clinically verifiable cancer detection and immune phenotyping from standard clinical imaging at existing costs - without requiring foundation model infrastructure, specialized hardware, or molecular assays. The open-source pipeline (Google Colab, Supplementary Material) enables immediate reproducibility and extension to additional cancer types across the pan-cancer TCGA atlas.

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Virtual Spectral Decomposition with Dendritic Binary Gating Detects Pancreatic Cancer Tissue Transformation on Standard CT: Multi-Institutional Validation Across Three Independent Datasets with a 3.8-Year Pre-Diagnostic Detection Window

Chandra, S.

2026-04-12 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350418 medRxiv
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Background. Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has a five-year survival rate of approximately 12%, largely because it is typically diagnosed at an advanced stage. CT-based computational methods for early detection exist but rely on black-box deep learning or large texture feature sets without tissue-specific interpretability. Methods. We developed Virtual Spectral Decomposition (VSD), which applies six parameterized sigmoid functions S(HU) = 1/(1+exp(-alpha x (HU - mu))) to standard portal-venous CT, decomposing each pixel into tissue-specific response channels for fat (mu=-60), fluid (mu=10), parenchyma (mu=45), stroma (mu=75), vascular (mu=130), and calcification (mu=250). Dendritic Binary Gating identifies structural content per channel using morphological filtering, enabling co-firing analysis and lone firer identification. A 25-feature signature was extracted per patient. Three independent datasets were analyzed: NIH Pancreas-CT (n=78 healthy), Medical Segmentation Decathlon Task07 (n=281 PDAC, paired tumor/adjacent tissue), and CPTAC-PDA from The Cancer Imaging Archive (n=82, multi-institutional, with DICOM time point tags). The same six sigmoid parameters were used across all datasets without retraining. Results. VSD achieved AUC 0.943 for field effect detection (healthy vs cancer-adjacent parenchyma) and AUC 0.931 for patient-stratified tumor specification on MSD. On CPTAC-PDA, VSD achieved AUC 0.961 (6 features) and 0.979 (25 features) for distinguishing healthy from cancer-bearing pancreas on scans obtained prior to pathological diagnosis. All significant features replicated across datasets in the same direction: z_fat (d=-2.10, p=3.5e-27), z_fluid (d=-2.76, p=2.4e-38), fire_fat (d=+2.18, p=1.2e-28). Critically, VSD severity did not correlate with days-from-diagnosis (r=-0.008, p=0.944) across a range of day -1394 to day +249. Patient C3N-01375, scanned 3.8 years before pathological diagnosis, had VSD severity 1.87, well above the healthy mean of 0.94 +/- 0.33. The tissue transformation signature was temporally stable, indicating an early, persistent tissue state rather than a progressively worsening process. Conclusions. VSD with Dendritic Binary Gating detects a stable pancreatic tissue composition signature on standard CT that is present years before clinical diagnosis, validated across three independent datasets without parameter adjustment. The six sigmoid channels map to biologically meaningful tissue components through a fully transparent interpretability chain. The temporal stability of the signal implies a detection window of 3-7 years, consistent with known PanIN-3 microenvironment transformation timelines. VSD functions as a single-scan screening tool applicable to any abdominal CT performed during the pre-clinical window.

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Distinct Metabolic Signatures Distinguish Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer

Tsiara, I.; Vouzaxaki, E.; Ekström, J.; Rameika, N.; Yang, F.; Jain, A.; Iglesias Alonso, A.; Sjöblom, T.; Globisch, D.

2026-04-13 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350309 medRxiv
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Cancer-related casualties are the most common cause of death worldwide. The discovery of biomarkers is of utmost importance for diagnosis and disease monitoring. Herein, we performed a comprehensive metabolomics biomarker discovery effort in plasma from 615 lung, ovarian and colorectal cancer patients at diagnosis and 95 non-cancerous control subjects. This pan-cancer investigation identified specific panels of metabolites in the entire sample cohort with a high discriminating power and demonstrated by combined ROC AUC values of up to 0.95. The identified metabolites are mainly associated with lipid and amino acid metabolism as well as xenobiotic transformation. These metabolite panels of high predictive power provide new metabolic insights in these cancers and demonstrate the potential of metabolomics for improved diagnosis and monitoring disease progression.

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Single-molecule cfDNA sequencing establishes clinical utility for ecDNA monitoring and multimodal liquid biopsy analysis

Sauer, C. M.; Tovey, N.; Ptasinska, A.; Hughes, D.; Stockton, J.; Zumalave, S.; Rust, A. G.; Lynn, C.; Livellara, V.; Sevrin, F.; Himsworth, C.; Muyas, F.; Nicolaidou, M.; Parry, G.; Paisana, E.; Cascao, R.; Ahmed, S. W.; Yasin, S. A.; Portela, L. R.; Balasubramanian, P.; Burke, G. A. A.; Vedi, A.; Faria, C. C.; Marshall, L. V.; Jacques, T. S.; Hubank, M.; Hargrave, D.; George, S.; Angelini, P.; Anderson, J.; Chesler, L.; Beggs, A. D.; Cortes-Ciriano, I.

2026-04-12 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350410 medRxiv
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Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) profiling enables minimally invasive cancer detection and monitoring. We present SIMMA, a low-input single-molecule sequencing approach that enables multimodal whole-genome and high-depth targeted sequencing of the same cfDNA sample for both tumour-agnostic and tumour-informed liquid biopsy analysis. Across 792 plasma and cerebrospinal fluid cfDNA samples from 277 paediatric patients with diverse brain and extracranial tumours, SIMMA enabled tumour diagnosis, detection of driver mutations, and reconstruction of extrachromosomal DNA (ecDNA) months before clinical relapse. Using conformal prediction trained on genome-wide fragmentomics, genomic and epigenomic data, SIMMA predicts disease burden as a continuous variable and provides well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for each sample, achieving a limit of detection of [~]100 ppm from low-pass whole-genome sequencing data. In summary, SIMMA establishes the clinical utility of multimodal cfDNA profiling with uncertainty quantification for individual patients and unlocks the potential of ecDNA as a liquid biopsy biomarker for disease detection and monitoring across diverse aggressive malignancies.

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Patient-Centred Communication in Lung Cancer Screening: A Clinically Focussed Evaluation of a Fine-Tuned Open-Source Model Against a Larger Frontier System

Khanna, S.; Chaudhary, R.; Narula, N.; Lee, R.

2026-04-11 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350595 medRxiv
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Lung cancer screening saves lives, yet uptake remains suboptimal and inequitable. Personalised communication can improve attendance and reduce anxiety, but scaling such support is a workforce challenge. We fine-tuned Googles Gemma 2 9B using QLoRA on 5,086 synthetic screening conversations and compared it against Googles Gemini 2.5 Flash (a larger frontier model) and an unmodified baseline across 300 multi-turn conversations with 100 patient personas spanning ten clinical categories. Evaluation combined automated natural language processing metrics with independent language model judgement in two complementary modes: structured clinical rubric and simulated patient persona. The fine-tuned model achieved the highest simulated patient experience score (3.71/5 vs 3.65 for the frontier model), recorded zero boundary violations after clinician review of all flagged instances, and led on the four most safety-critical categories. A composite Patient Adaptation Index showed that the fine-tuned model led overall (0.37 vs 0.35 vs 0.35), with its clearest advantage on the two clinically specific components: empathy calibration to patient distress and selective smoking cessation signposting. These findings suggest that targeted fine-tuning of open-source models can yield clinical communication quality comparable to larger proprietary systems, with advantages in safety-critical scenarios and suitability for NHS data governance constraints. Human clinician review of these conversations is ongoing.

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In Their Own Words: Noise Complaint Data Reveals Impacts of Military Aviation

Huang, C.-H. S.; Kuehne, L. M.; Jacuzzi, G.; Olden, J. D.; Seto, E.

2026-04-16 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.04.14.26350904 medRxiv
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Military aviation training noise remains understudied despite its widespread impacts across urban, rural, and wilderness areas. The predominance of low-frequency noise and repetitive training can create pervasive noise pollution, yet past research often fails to capture the full range of health and quality-of-life effects. This study analyzed two complaint datasets related to Whidbey Island Naval Air Station noise: U.S. Navy records (2017-2020) and Quiet Skies Over San Juan County data (2021-2023). We analyzed and mapped sentiment intensity from noise complaints relative to modeled annual noise exposure, developed a typology to classify impacts, and modeled the environmental and operational factors influencing complaints. Findings revealed widespread negative sentiment and anger, often beyond the bounds of estimated noise contours, suggesting that annual cumulative noise models inadequately estimate community impacts. Complaints consistently highlighted sleep disturbance, hearing and health concerns, and compromised home environments due to shaking, vibration, and disruption of daily life. Residents also reported significant social, recreational, and work disruptions, along with feelings of fear, helplessness, and concern for children's well-being. The number of complaints were strongly associated with training schedules, with late-night sessions being the strongest predictor. A delayed response pattern suggests residents reach a frustration threshold before filing complaints. Overall, our findings demonstrate persistent negative sentiment and diverse impacts from military aviation noise. Results highlight the need for improved noise metrics, modeling and operational adjustments to mitigate the most disruptive effects.

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Easily Scalable, Rapidly Deployable Mechanical Ventilator For Pandemic Health Crises In Resource-Limited Areas

Farre, R.; Salama, R.; Rodriguez-Lazaro, M. A.; Kiarostami, K.; Fernandez-Barat, L.; Oliveira, V. D. C.; Torres, A.; Farre, N.; Dinh-Xuan, A. T.; Gozal, D.; Otero, J.

2026-04-11 emergency medicine 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350386 medRxiv
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BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic exposed critical shortages of mechanical ventilators, particularly in low-resource settings. Disruptions in global supply chains and dependence on specialized components highlighted the need for scalable, locally manufacturing alternatives for emergency respiratory support. AimTo describe and evaluate a simplified, supply-chain-independent mechanical ventilator assembled from widely available automotive and simple hardware components, and intended as a last-resort solution. MethodsThe ventilator is based on a reciprocating air pump driven by an automotive windshield wiper motor coupled to parallel shaft bellows and readily assembled passive membrane valves, only requiring materials available from standard hardware retailers, minimal tools, and basic manual skills. Ventilator performance was assessed through bench testing using a patient model simulating severe lung disease in an adult (R=20 cmH2O{middle dot}s/L, C=15 mL/cmH2O) and pediatric (R=50 cmH2O{middle dot}s/L, C=10 mL/cmH2O) patients. Realistic proof of concept was performed in four mechanically ventilated 50-kg pigs. ResultsThe device delivered tidal volumes up to 600 mL and respiratory rates up to 45 breaths/min with PEEP up to 10 cmH2O, covering pediatric and adult ventilation ranges. In vivo testing showed that the ventilator maintained arterial blood gases within the targeted range. Technical details for ventilator construction are provided in an open-source video tutorial. DiscussionThis low-cost ventilator demonstrated adequate performance under demanding conditions. Although not a substitute for commercial intensive care ventilators, its simplicity, autonomy, and independence from fragile supply chains provide a potentially life-saving option in resource-constrained emergency scenarios.

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Functional PD-1/PD-L1 engagement defines a spatial biomarker of immunotherapy response

Ullman, T.; Krantz, D.; Avenel, C.; Lung, M.; Svedman, F. C.; Holmsten, K.; Ostling, P.; Ullen, A.; Stadler, C.

2026-04-17 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.15.26350929 medRxiv
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Effective predictive biomarkers for immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy remain an unmet need across solid tumors. Here, we present an integrated spatial proteomics workflow that combines in situ proximity ligation assay with multiplexed immunofluorescence to directly resolve PD1/PDL1 signaling events at the level of defined cellular phenotypes and their spatial organization within intact tumor tissue. Applied as a proof of concept to tumor samples from patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma treated with pembrolizumab, this approach reveals that PD1/PDL1 interactions specifically involving cytotoxic CD8CD3 T cells are significantly enriched in complete responders, while such interactions are rare in patients with progressive disease. This interaction defined T cell subset achieves superior discrimination of clinical response compared to single marker PDL1 expression or immune cell abundance alone. By integrating direct detection of protein protein interactions with high dimensional single cell phenotyping, our workflow provides a mechanistically informed, spatially resolved biomarker of functional immune engagement. Beyond urothelial carcinoma, this platform establishes a generalizable framework for translating spatial signaling biology into predictive tools for immunotherapy response across tumor types.

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The impact of non-invasive prehabilitation before surgery on emotional well-being in neuro-oncology patients: Insights from the Prehabilita project

Brault-Boixader, N.; Roca-Ventura, A.; Delgado-Gallen, S.; Buloz-Osorio, E.; Perellon-Alfonso, R.; Hung Au, C.; Bartres-Faz, D.; Pascual-Leone, A.; Tormos Munoz, J. M.; Abellaneda-Perez, K.; Prehabilita Working Group,

2026-04-12 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350382 medRxiv
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Prehabilitation (PRH) is a preoperative process aimed at optimizing patients functional capacity to improve surgical outcomes and overall well-being. While its physical and cognitive benefits are increasingly documented, its emotional impact, particularly in neuro-oncology patients, remains less explored. This study assessed the psychological effects of a PRH program on 29 brain tumor patients. The primary outcome, emotional well-being, was measured using quality of life and emotional distress metrices. Secondary outcomes included perceived stress levels and control attitudes. Additionally, qualitative data from structured interviews provided further insights into the psychological effects of the intervention. The results indicated significant improvements in quality of life and reductions in emotional distress, particularly among women. While perceived stress levels remained stable, control attitudes showed an increase. Qualitative analysis further highlighted the positive changes in the control sense and identified additional factors, such as the importance of social support sources during the PRH process. Overall, these findings suggest that PRH interventions play a significant role in enhancing emotional well-being among neuro-oncological patients in the preoperative phase. These results underscore the importance of implementing comprehensive and personalized PRH approaches to optimize clinical status both before and after surgery, thereby promoting sustained psychological benefits in this population. This study is based on data collected at Institut Guttmann in Barcelona in the context of the Prehabilita project (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT05844605; registration date: 06/05/2023).

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CTA versus TOF-MRA for circle of Willis segmentation: Implications for hemodynamic modelling

Vikström, A.; Zarrinkoob, L.; Johannesdottir, M.; Wahlin, A.; Hellström, J.; Appelblad, M.; Holmlund, P.

2026-04-11 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350583 medRxiv
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Modelling of hemodynamics in the circle of Willis (CoW) depends on vascular segmentation, which may vary based on imaging modality. Computed tomography angiography (CTA) is commonly used in clinic but involves radiation and injection of contrast agents, whereas magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) offers a non-invasive alternative. This study aims to compare CoW morphology and modelled cerebral perfusion pressure of CTA and MRA segmentations, validating if MRA can replace CTA in modelling workflows. CTA and time-of-flight MRA (TOF-MRA) of the CoW was performed in 19 patients undergoing elective aortic arch surgery (67{+/-}7 years, 8 women). The CoW was semi-automatically segmented based on signal intensity thresholding. A TOF-MRA threshold was optimized against the CTA segmentation, using the CTA as reference standard. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling with boundary conditions based on subject-specific flow rates from 4D flow MRI simulated cerebral perfusion pressure in the segmented geometries. A baseline simulation and a unilateral brain inflow simulation, i.e., occlusion of a carotid, were carried out. Linear mixed models indicated there was no effect of choice of modality on either average arterial lumen area (CTA - TOF-MRA: -0.2{+/-}1.3 mm2; p=0.762) or baseline pressure drops (0.2{+/-}1.9 mmHg; p=0.257). In the unilateral inflow simulation, we found no difference in pressure laterality (-6.6{+/-}18.4 mmHg; p=0.185) or collateral flow rate (10{+/-}46 ml/min; p=0.421). TOF-MRA geometries can with signal intensity thresholding be matched to produce similar morphology and modelled cerebral perfusion pressure to CTA geometries. The modelled pressure drops over the collateral arteries were sensitive to the segmentation regardless of modality.

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Prospective Population-Scale Validation of an Electronic Health Record Based Model for Pancreatic Cancer Risk

Lahtinen, E.; Schigiltchoff, N.; Jia, K.; Kundrot, S.; Palchuk, M. B.; Warnick, J.; Chan, L.; Shigiltchoff, N.; Sawhney, M. S.; Rinard, M.; Appelbaum, L.

2026-04-13 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.11.26350318 medRxiv
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Background and aims: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) surveillance is limited to individuals with familial or genetic risk although most future cases arise outside these groups. In a retrospective study, PRISM, an electronic health record (EHR)-based PDAC risk model, identified individuals in the general population at elevated near-term risk of PDAC. We aimed to prospectively evaluate whether PRISM can identify high-risk individuals beyond current surveillance groups across U.S. health systems. Methods: We performed a prospective multicenter cohort study after deployment of PRISM in April 2023 across 44 U.S. health care organizations. Eligible adults aged [&ge;]40 years without prior PDAC received a single baseline risk score and were assigned to prespecified risk tiers. Patients were followed for incident PDAC for 30 months. We estimated tier-specific 30-month cumulative incidence (positive predictive value, PPV), number needed to screen (NNS), standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), and time from deployment and first high-risk flag to diagnosis. Results: Among 6,282,123 adults assigned a PRISM score, 5,058,067 had follow-up; 3,609 developed PDAC. The highest-risk tier had 30-fold higher PDAC incidence than the study population. At the SIR 5 threshold, 30-month cumulative incidence was 0.35% (NNS, 284.2); at SIR 16, 1.14% (NNS, 87.4); and at SIR 30, 2.19% (NNS, 45.7). Median time from deployment to PDAC diagnosis was 9.5 months, and median time from first high-risk flag to diagnosis at SIR 5 was 3.5 years. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analyses supported patient- and tier-level interpretability. Conclusions: Prospective deployment of PRISM across multiple U.S. health care organizations identified individuals at elevated near-term risk for PDAC, with substantial risk enrichment and lead time before diagnosis. These findings support the real-world scalability and generalizability of EHRbased risk stratification for risk-adapted early detection. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT05973331

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Monitoring-based and self-reported close-contact records in relation to ultra-wideband-derived proximity in a long-term care facility: a single-facility observational study

Shinto, H.; Chowell, G.; Takayama, Y.; Ohki, Y.; Saito, K.; Mizumoto, K.

2026-04-13 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350570 medRxiv
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BackgroundIn long-term care facilities (LTCFs), close-contact identification often relies on staff recall and monitoring records because residents may be unable to self-report reliably. How these different record-generation processes relate to proximity-based sensor measurements in routine LTCF workflow remain unclear, and how such differences may influence contact-based decision-making in outbreak response is not well understood. MethodsWe conducted a five-day observational study in a Japanese LTCF using ultra-wideband (UWB) indoor positioning. Twenty-seven participants wore UWB tags, including 16 residents and 11 staff members; 10 staff members completed questionnaires. We compared UWB-derived proximity with questionnaire-derived contacts from staff self-report and monitoring-based proxy records, and assessed directional discrepancies under multiple distance-time thresholds. ResultsQuestionnaire-based records and UWB-derived proximity showed different patterns of discrepancy across contact types. Within this facility, resident-related monitoring-based proxy records showed relatively small directional discrepancies, whereas staff self-reports tended to identify additional resident-staff contacts under the baseline threshold ([&le;]1.0 m for [&ge;]15 min). Several alternative thresholds were associated with discrepancies closer to zero than the baseline, although the apparent ranking varied by summary metric. ConclusionsIn this single-facility observational study, different contact-list generation processes were associated with different patterns of discrepancy relative to a proximity-based operational measure. These findings support interpretation in terms of workflow-specific contact-list generation rather than a single universally optimal threshold and may help inform facility-level review of contact identification practices in LTCFs. These findings support aligning contact identification strategies with facility-specific workflows to improve the feasibility and effectiveness of IPC practices in LTCFs.

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Molecular signature of pediatric B-ALL determines outcomes post CD19 CAR-T cell therapy

Oszer, A.; Pastorczak, A.; Urbanska, Z.; Miarka, K.; Marschollek, P.; Richert-Przygonska, M.; Mielcarek-Siedziuk, M.; Baggott, C.; Schultz, L.; Moon, J.; Aftandilian, C.; Styczynski, J.; Kalwak, K.; Mlynarski, W.; Davis, K. L.

2026-04-13 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.11.26350681 medRxiv
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Chimeric antigen receptor T-cell (CAR-T) therapy targeting CD19 has transformed outcomes for children with relapsed or refractory (R/R) B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (B-ALL), yet the influence of molecular subtype on outcomes remains unclear. We evaluated the impact of cytogenetic and molecular signatures on complete response (CR), overall survival (OS), and leukemia-free survival (LFS) after CD19 CAR-T therapy in eighty-six pediatric patients with R/R B-ALL treated with tisagenlecleucel. CR was assessed 30 days after infusion. Cytogenetic data were available for 84 patients and molecular profiling for 62. Survival analyses included 72 patients who received CD19 CAR-T as the sole cellular therapy. Seventy-seven patients achieved CR (89.5%). Pre-infusion bone marrow blasts of [&ge;]20% were associated with lower CR rates (53.8% vs 95.9%, p<0.0001) and significantly reduced OS and LFS (both p<0.0001). Among molecular markers, RAS mutations correlated with inferior OS (p=0.0222) and LFS (0.0402). In multivariate analysis, bone marrow blasts >20% and RAS mutations independently predicted inferior OS. Post CAR-T, CD19 negative relapses showed almost twice higher prevalence of RAS mutations (66% vs 37.5%). These findings highlight RAS mutations as a key molecular predictor of outcome after CD19 CAR-T therapy and suggest emergence of unique risk stratification for patients receiving CD19-targeting therapy.

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A Multi-Clique Network Model for Epidemic Spread with Fully Accessible Within-Group and Limited Between-Group Contacts

Smah, M. L.; Seale, A. C.; Rock, K. S.

2026-04-11 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350390 medRxiv
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Network-based epidemic models have been instrumental in understanding how contact structure shapes infectious disease dynamics, yet widely used frameworks such as Erd[o]s-Renyi, configuration-model, and stochastic block networks do not explicitly capture the combination of fully accessible (saturated) within-group interactions and constrained between-group connectivity characteristic of many real-world settings. Here, we introduce the Multi-Clique (MC) network model, a generative framework in which individuals are organised into fully connected cliques representing stable contact groups (e.g., households, classrooms, or workplaces), with a limited number of external connections governing inter-group transmission. Using stochastic susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) simulations on degree-matched networks, we compare epidemic dynamics on MC networks with those on classical random graph models. Despite having an identical mean degree, MC networks exhibit systematically distinct behaviour, including slower epidemic growth, reduced peak prevalence, increased fade-out probability, and delayed time to peak. These effects arise from rapid within but constrained between clique transmission, creating structural bottlenecks that standard models do not capture. The MC framework provides an interpretable, data-driven representation of recurrent contact structure, with parameters that map directly to observable quantities such as household and classroom sizes. By isolating the role of intergroup connectivity, the model offers a basis for evaluating targeted intervention strategies that reduce between-group mixing while preserving within-group interactions. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly representing the real-life clique-based network structure in epidemic models and suggest that classical degree-matched networks may systematically overestimate epidemic speed and intensity in structured populations.

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SCOPE: Integrating Organoid Screening and Clinical Variables Through Machine Learning for Cancer Trial Outcome Prediction

Bouteiller, J.; Gryspeert, A.-R.; Caron, J.; Polit, L.; Altay, G.; Cabantous, M.; Pietrzak, R.; Graziosi, F.; Longarini, M.; Schutte, K.; Cartry, J.; Mathieu, J. R.; Bedja, S.; Boileve, A.; Ducreux, M.; Pages, D.-L.; Jaulin, F.; Ronteix, G.

2026-04-11 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350512 medRxiv
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Background: Predicting whether a treatment will demonstrate meaningful clinical benefit before committing to a large-scale trial remains a major unmet need in oncology. Patient-derived organoids (PDOs) recapitulate individual tumor drug sensitivity, but have not been used to forecast population-level trial outcomes. We developed SCOPE (Screening-to-Clinical Outcome Prediction Engine), a platform that integrates PDO drug screening with clinical prognostic modeling to predict arm-level median progression-free survival (mPFS) and objective response rate (ORR) without access to any trial outcome data. Patients and methods: SCOPE was trained on 54 treatment lines from patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC, n=15) and metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDAC, n=39) with matched clinical data and PDO drug screening across 9 compounds. A Clinical Score module captures baseline prognosis; a Drug Screen Score module quantifies treatment-specific organoid sensitivity. To predict trial outcomes, synthetic patient profiles are generated from published eligibility criteria and matched to a biobank of 81 PDO lines. Predictions were externally validated against 32 arms from 23 published trials, treatment ranking was assessed across 8 head-to-head comparisons, and prospective applicability was tested for daraxonrasib (RMC-6236), a novel pan-RAS inhibitor in mPDAC. Results: Predicted mPFS strongly agreed with published outcomes (R2=0.85, MAE=0.82 months; Pearson r=0.92, P<0.001), approaching the empirical concordance between two independently measured clinical endpoints (ORR vs. mPFS, R2=0.87). ORR prediction was similarly robust (R2=0.71, MAE=7.3 percentage points). Integrating organoid and clinical data significantly outperformed either alone (P=0.001). SCOPE correctly identified the superior arm in 7 of 8 head-to-head comparisons (88%, P<0.05). Applied to daraxonrasib prior to phase 3 data availability, the platform predicted superiority over standard chemotherapy in KRAS-mutant mPDAC, consistent with emerging clinical data. Conclusion: By combining functional organoid drug screening with clinical modeling, SCOPE generates calibrated efficacy predictions for both established regimens and novel agents without prior clinical data. This approach could support clinical trial design, treatment arm selection, and go/no-go decisions, offering a new tool to improve the efficiency of gastrointestinal cancer drug development.

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Variation in Haemostasis and VTE Prophylaxis in Elective Adult Cranial Neurosurgery: A Global Survey of Perioperative Practice

Pandit, A. S.; Chaudri, T.; Chaudri, Z.; Vasilica, A. M.; Dhaliwal, J.; Sayar, Z.; Cohen, H.; Westwood, J. P.; Toma, A. K.

2026-04-16 surgery 10.64898/2026.04.14.26350905 medRxiv
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Background Venous thromboembolism (VTE) remains a major cause of perioperative morbidity in cranial neurosurgery, yet clinical practice varies widely, and formal guidelines are inconsistent. Understanding internationally sampled neurosurgical practice is essential for informing consensus and future trials. Methods An international, 2-stage cross-sectional, internet-based survey was conducted. Practising neurosurgeons performing elective adult cranial surgery were eligible. Descriptive statistics were used to summarise practice. Responses covered patterns of pre-operative haemostasis decision making, use and timing of mechanical and/or chemical prophylaxis, use of perioperative imaging prior to anticoagulation, and frequency of clinical assessment for VTE. Associations with geographical income status, subspecialty, and years post-certification were statistically tested. Practice heterogeneity was quantified and contextual influence was summarised using mean effect sizes across stratifying variables in order to determine domains of true equipoise. Results Of 585 responses, 456 (78%) met criteria for inclusion: representing 322 units across 78 countries (71% high-income). Thirteen per cent reported no departmental VTE plan; 23% followed no guidelines and 12% used multiple. Routine pre-operative testing almost universally included haemoglobin/platelets/haematocrit, with fibrinogen more common in high-income settings. Compared with high-income country respondents, low- and middle-income respondents reported higher haemoglobin transfusion thresholds (>90 g/dL; p<0.001) and shorter antiplatelet interruption (p[&le;]0.03), and less frequent outpatient VTE assessment (p<0.001). Mechanical prophylaxis was common (TEDs 81%, IPC 62%), typically started pre- or intra-operatively. Among those completing the chemoprophylaxis section (n=310), 57% required a CT or MRI scan before LMWH which was then initiated on average 31.4 hours after surgery. 1% of respondents did not routinely use LMWH. Many clinical decisions demonstrated statistical equipoise ie. high heterogeneity with low contextual influence. Conclusion Peri-operative haemostasis and VTE prophylaxis practices in adult elective cranial neurosurgery vary substantially worldwide, with some decisions reflecting geographical or socioeconomic differences and many others reflecting true clinical equipoise rather than contextual determinants. By mapping contemporary real-world practice across diverse health-system contexts, this study provides a necessary empirical foundation for rational trial design and future guideline development.

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Uncertainty Aware Decision Support with Computationally Expensive Simulation Models: A Case Study of HIV Intervention Scenarios

fadikar, a.; Hotton, A.; de Lima, P. N.; Vardavas, R.; Collier, N.; Jia, K.; Rimer, S.; Khanna, A.; Schneider, J.; Ozik, J.

2026-04-17 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.04.15.26350970 medRxiv
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Detailed agent-based simulations are increasingly used to support policy decisions, but their computational cost and complex uncertainty structure make systematic scenario analysis challenging. We present a data-driven, uncertainty-aware decision support (DDUADS) workflow for using stochastic simulation models as decision-support tools under limited computational budgets. The approach combines several established techniques-sensitivity screening, Bayesian calibration using simulation-based inference, and multi-surrogate model integration for translational efficiency-into a coherent pipeline that enables uncertainty-aware policy analysis. Rather than producing a single baseline, the calibration stage yields a posterior distribution over plausible model parameterizations, allowing flexible, uncertainty-aware forward projections. We demonstrate the DDUADS workflow on the INFORM-HIV agent-based model of HIV transmission in Chicago to evaluate potential disruptions in antiretroviral therapy (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use. While the specific application is HIV modeling, the challenges and techniques described here arise in other simulation studies and can be applied to decision support in other domains.

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Deep-learning-Assisted Photoacoustic and Ultrasound Evaluation for Pre-transplant Human Liver Graft Quality and Transplant Suitability

Zhang, Q.; Tang, Q.; Vu, T.; Pandit, K.; Cui, Y.; Yan, F.; Wang, N.; Li, J.; Yao, A.; Menozzi, L.; Fung, K.-M.; Yu, Z.; Parrack, P.; Ali, W.; Liu, R.; Wang, C.; Liu, J.; Hostetler, C. A.; Milam, A. N.; Nave, B.; Squires, R. A.; Battula, N. R.; Pan, C.; Martins, P. N.; Yao, J.

2026-04-15 transplantation 10.64898/2026.04.13.26350786 medRxiv
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End-stage liver disease (ESLD) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. Currently, the only curative option for patients with ESLD is liver transplantation. However, the demand for donor livers far exceeds the available supply, partly because many potentially viable livers are discarded following biopsy evaluation. While biopsy is the gold standard for assessing liver histological features related to graft quality and transplant suitability, it often leads to high discard rates due to its susceptibility to sampling errors and limited spatial coverage. Besides, biopsy is invasive, time-consuming, and unavailable in clinical facilities with limited resources. Here, we present an AI-assisted photoacoustic/ultrasound (PA/US) imaging framework for quantitative assessment of human donor liver graft quality and transplant suitablity at the whole-organ scale. With multimodal volumetric PA/US images as the input, our deep-learning (DL) model accurately predicted the risk level of fibrosis and steatosis, which indicate the graft quality and transplant suitability, when comparing with true pathological scores. DL also identified the imaging modes (PAI wavelength and B-mode USI) that correlated the most with prediction accuracy, without relying on ill-posed spectral unmixing. Our method was evaluated in six discarded human donor livers comprising sixty spatially matched regions of interest. Our study will pave the way for a new standard of care in organ graft quality and transplant suitability that is fast, noninvasive, and spatially thorough to prevent unnecessary organ discards in liver transplantation.

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Trade-offs in emergency transport protocols for access to hip fracture management: a geospatial analysis of selective versus standard transfer in Ontario long-term care

Yee, N. J.; Chen, T.; Huang, Y. Q.; Whyne, C.; Halai, M.

2026-04-14 orthopedics 10.64898/2026.04.12.26350713 medRxiv
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Objectives: For suspected hip fractures, prehospital protocols directing patients to an orthopaedic centre rather than the nearest emergency department (ED) could reduce time-to-surgery but may impact EMS travel burden. This study evaluates the impact of transfer protocols by quantifying transport to hospitals from long term care (LTC) facilities across Ontario. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional analysis of all Ontario LTC facilities and hospitals was performed. Two protocols were modeled: standard transfer to the nearest ED with subsequent transfer if required, and selective transfer based on Collingwood Hip Fracture Rule prehospital screening1 directly to the nearest orthopaedic services (orthoED). Median one-way travel distances were calculated from Google Maps. Results: In Ontario, 15.4% of LTC residents require hospital destination decisions because their nearest ED lacks orthopaedic services; for these facilities, median distances were 2.7km to the ED and 36.0km to the orthoED. Among the 52 LTC facilities where selective transfer was distance-optimal, it substantially reduced travel for patients with hip fracture (31.1km vs 49.6km; P<.01) while only modestly increasing travel for patients without hip fracture. Where standard transfer was distance-optimal, little travel difference was noted for patients with hip fracture, however false positive screened patients traveled significantly further to an orthoED. Greatest negative consequences of selective transfer lie in the 1.3% of residents living farthest (>100km) from an orthoED. Conclusions: EMS direct transportation to hospitals with orthopaedics may improve hip fracture care but can increase EMS burden due to patients identified falsely as having a hip fracture, particularly in remote communities.